Khaled Eltokhy

About

I am a PhD candidate in Economics at the CUNY Graduate Center. Prior to starting my PhD, I worked at the International Monetary Fund on public investment management.

I study why governments fail to build what they promise. In many developing countries, the same budget that delivers housing and roads in one district produces abandoned construction sites in another. These gaps between policy and implementation shape where people can afford to live, which neighborhoods get services, and whether cities grow or stagnate.

My current work focuses on Egypt's urban development - tracking how enforcement shocks affect informal construction, how local state capacity determines infrastructure placement, and how information frictions shape household decisions during policy changes. The empirical challenges have led me to develop new measurement approaches: building pipelines to extract structured data from Arabic administrative documents, combining satellite imagery with local records, and using LLMs to parse government PDFs at scale. These patterns - state capacity constraints, informal markets, implementation gaps - recur across developing countries, making Egypt a useful case for understanding broader questions about how states function when formal institutions are weak.

The core challenge is measurement. We know surprisingly little about what governments actually build versus what they budget for, and that gap matters for understanding why development happens where it does.

Research

Working Papers

The Political Economy of Building Regulation

Combining administrative records with satellite imagery, I study Egypt’s nationwide building freeze to quantify how abrupt regulatory shocks shift formal and informal construction. The project documents adaptation margins under limited state capacity and speaks to the effectiveness and limits of enforcement-heavy regulation.

Methods: Administrative data, satellite imagery, causal inference

Institutional Reform and Public Sector Efficiency

Using contract-level procurement data and the staggered rollout of Public Investment Management Assessments (PIMAs), I estimate the causal impact of external diagnostics on procurement outcomes and efficiency, isolating changes attributable to the assessments rather than secular trends.

Methods: Causal inference, panel data analysis

Global Games and Coups

This theoretical and empirical project develops an estimable global-games model of coups d’état, separating feasibility (coordination) from desirability (payoffs). We bridge economics and political science and bring the model to data to quantify the mechanisms behind coup success.

Methods: Global games, structural estimation, political economy, econometrics

Publications

How to Improve Public Investment Management in Low-Income Countries

IMF How-To Note, 2024

Provides practical guidance for strengthening investment frameworks in resource-constrained settings. Identifies critical institutional bottlenecks and proposes a sequenced reform approach that accounts for capacity limitations, with concrete implementation strategies for effective infrastructure delivery.

Monitoring the Climate Impact of Fiscal Policy

IMF Working Paper, October 2021

Develops an archetype-based methodology (IMF Green Tracker) to categorize fiscal measures across sectors by environmental impact and discusses green budgeting frameworks and cross-country comparability.

Technical Reports

Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) Reports

2020–2022

Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) reports for Grenada, Haiti, and Nepal.

Research Assistance

Teaching

Current Courses (Spring & Fall 2025)

STA 2000 - Business Statistics

Baruch College

ECON 4400 - Advanced Economics and Business Statistics

Brooklyn College

Past Teaching

STA 2000Fall 2024
ECON 3410Fall 2024
STA 2000Spring 2024
ECON 2200Spring 2024
STA 2000Fall 2023